Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Storm Warnings set from Intercostal City Louisiana
To Destin Fl, Including Lake Pontchitrain and New Orleans
 

TD 5 Watches and Warnings

TD 5 Forecast Track

TD 5 Forecast Error Tracks

TD 5 Forecast Model Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

...LARGE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 86.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER.  IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES.  A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY
POSITION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN BANDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

DUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS NOT CHANGED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWEST
MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER DUE TO THE UPDATED INITIAL
POSITION.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE SPRAWLING STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE SLOW.  IN
ADDITION...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOW HAVE LESS TIME OVER WATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  AS A RESULT...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...THE INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS IS UNLIKELY TO
ACCURATELY REFLECT THE CURRENT CYCLONE STRUCTURE.

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONES SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS TYPICALLY WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THIS IS CERTAINLY THE CASE WITH THIS
DEPRESSION.  IF THE DEPRESSION SLOWS DOWN AS FORECAST AFTER
LANDFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/1500Z 27.8N  86.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 28.6N  88.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 29.6N  89.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 30.4N  90.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 31.2N  90.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 32.6N  89.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 34.0N  87.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI